Dec 22, 2024 - This week, Maui car rental prices have soared to all-time record highs. Prices at these levels far exceed previous highs, and they have never before been seen in the history of Maui car rentals. The magnitude of the price increase for the holidays is more than twice the historical norm. The reasons for this extraordinary increase are logistical delays that have limited rental vehicle availability in Maui, fleet reliability issues coupled with skilled labor shortages that put large numbers of vehicles out of service, and possible shortcomings in planning by rental operators. We cover these factors in detail below. First, let's review this week's prices.

HOW MUCH DOES IT COST TO RENT A CAR THIS WEEK?

Below are the lowest advertised prices for a one-week car rental beginning Monday December 23 from Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG), for a selection of vehicle categories, with the change from the previous week, and the company offering the best price. These numbers are illustrated in Figure 1.

Category Price Change Company
Economy $1,911 161% Budget
Midsize $2,446 227% Dollar
Jeep $2,543 119% Thrifty
Convertbl $4,058 292% Dollar
SUV $3,344 315% SiXT
7 St SUV - - -Minivan - - -

This week, the lowest price for renting a car from OGG for one week is $1,911/week from Budget, up 161% from last week, more than double. A midsize car is $2,446/week from Dollar, up 227% from last week, more than triple. A Jeep is $2,543/week from Thrifty, up 119% from last week, more than double. A convertible is a vertiginous $4,058/week from Dollar, up 292% from last week, or nearly quadruple. A SUV is $3,355/week from SiXT, up 315%, more than quadruple. Minivans and 7-seat SUV's are not available from any rental company at any price.

Prices for every available vehicle type are at an all-time high. These prices are so high as to seem aberrant and absurd. Meaning, who in their right mind would pay this much for a rental car, and what rental manager in their right mind would set the price so high.

HOW DO PRICES COMPARE WITH PREVIOUS YEARS?

This week the cheapest price for a one week car rental from Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG) beginning on Monday 12/23/24 is $1,911/week, up $1,178 or 161% from last week. For a rental from nearby off-airport locations served by shuttle, the cheapest price is $2,338/week, up $1,751/week or 298% from last week.

Compared to one year ago, for the week of 12/25/23, when prices were still depressed in the aftermath of the August 2023 Lahaina wildfire disaster, today's price for an airport rental is $1,643/week or 614% (nearly 7x) higher than last year, and the price for an off-airport rental is $2,071/week more or 773% (nearly 9x) more than last year (see Figure 2).

HOW IS THIS YEAR'S HOLIDAY PRICE INCREASE DIFFERENT FROM PAST YEARS?

Previously we conducted a five-year study of Maui car rental prices between 2013 and 2019. The lowest advertised price of a one-week rental averaged over this five-year period is illustrated in Figure 3.

Over the five-year period or our study, it was normal to expect a sharp rise in the rental price in the weeks immediately before and after the Christmas holidays. We call this the x-mas multiplier.

This pattern is repeating again this year. Note the striking qualitative similarity between Figure 3 that shows the lowest advertised price of a one-week rental tracked every week for the 2013-2019 period, and Figure 2 that shows the same thing for the past year.

However there is a difference in the magnitude of the X-mas multiplier. This year the multiplier is much stronger than previous years. How much stronger? We can quantify this using some very simple statistics.

For the 2013-2019 period, the five-year average of the median of the lowest advertised price for a one-week rental taken over 52 weeks was $205/week. The five-year average of the peak price for the year, that always occurred during the X-mas holidays, was $691/week. So the peak price was very nearly 3.4x the median price, in other words for 2013 to 2019, the average of the X-mas multiplier was 3.4.

For 2024, the median of the lowest advertised price for a one-week rental in the past 52-week period is $216/week - strikingly close to the five-year median figure! The peak price of $1,911/week in 2024 is 8.8x the median price. In other words the X-mas multiplier this year is 8.8 - more than twice the normal multiplier.

This means that in 2024 the peak price increased more than twice as much relative to the median price as would be normally expected from past price data.

Last week we wrote that the increase in Christmas prices indicated two things: 1. Visitor numbers are beginning to recover from last year's Lahaina wildfires, and 2. Rental companies have underestimated their fleet requirements for this year, leading to shortage conditions in periods of peak demand.

However, in light of this week's all-time record high prices, we have sought to gain a better understanding of the factors driving prices higher, and we have some interesting findings to report, that help to explain the extraordinary rise in prices this year.

WHAT IS CAUSING THE UNUSUAL PRICE INCREASE FOR CHRISTMAS 2024?

We visited the physical locations of several car rental agencies to take stock of their operational conditions and any factors that would explain this week's extraordinary prices. Here is a summary of what we found.

1. Logistical delays have limited vehicle availability. More than one agency has a relatively large number (dozens for smaller locations, and hundreds at larger locations) of brand new vehicles that have just been unloaded from shipping (or in one case were being unloaded and arriving on the lot as we watched). See the photos of some of these vehicles. They have either temporary registration or no registration at all and cannot be put into service. See the photos of idle vehicles filling up agency back lots. Shipping delays at major seaports have been one of the major news stories of the last few years. Another big news story is the delay in delivery of new cars due to component shortages. Normally, rental fleet additions arrive in the late summer or early fall, and are prepped to be put into service for the busy winter season. But this year the fleet additions are arriving after the winter season has already started.
2. Reliability issues and recalls have disabled large numbers of vehicles. At more than one agency we saw vehicles with the tell-tale grease-pen notations on the windows indicating vehicle out of service. We know from previous observations that some of these have been sitting idle for months, taking up space while they await return to the mainland. There are so many of these out-of-service vehicles that some have been moved out of the rental facilities to the "unofficial" storage lots surrounding the airport. Recalls on recent model vehicles have been one of the big news stories of the last few years. Vehicles subject to recall notices may not be legally rented, so they just sit unrented.
3. Shortage of skilled labor is impacting fleet utilization rates. Simply put, there are not enough auto mechanics to keep all the rental cars running, so they are sitting idle for longer awaiting routine maintenance and repair. Rental companies and auto dealerships in Maui are offering large signing bonuses and other incentives to recruit mechanics, but even so not enough can be found to fill all the available positions that need to filled.
4. Shortcomings in planning. This alternative phrasing of "poor planning" is the nicest way we can come up with to say that rental managers have been caught with their pants down this year, or that they've dropped the ball. None of the factors we have discussed here so far have arisen as last minute-surprises. They have all been sitting in clear view on the horizon for the last few years. While it's nobody's fault that these factors have all come together, it is certainly somebody's fault that no contingency plans were made to deal with them.

In summary, is this year's price increase due to a perfect storm? No, it is a perfectly ordinary storm with ordinary factors that have been well-known from some time.

WHERE DO MAUI CAR RENTAL PRICES GO FROM HERE?

For the coming weeks, online reservation systems are showing advance reservation prices that drop from this week's extraordinary level to a more usual high season level. As of today the lowest advertised prices for a one week rental, both from the airport rentals and off-airport, are as follows:

DATE OGG OFF-OGG
12/23/24 $2,338 $1,911
12/30/24 $851 $818
01/06/25 $474 $541
01/13/25 $295 $310
01/20/25 $321 $381
01/27/25 $240 $268

These advance reservation prices, marked as "Forecast," are illustrated in Figure 2. The coming five-week period for the forecast and the corresponding five-week period from one year ago are both highlighted in red.

DOES IT COST LESS TO RENT OFF-AIRPORT?

Normally, off-airport prices are lower than airport prices due to a number of factors that we have covered in a previous blog post, titled "Is It Cheaper to Rent a Car at the Airport in Maui? Updated for 2024." But this week, the off-airport price is higher than airport for n early all vehicle categories except SUV's (See Figure 5).

This week's reversal of the expected price pattern is likely because off-airport locations, that are smaller than airport locations and have a smaller inventory of cars, are running very low on availability, so their price-setting algorithms (in some cases AI-based) jack up the price of the remaining available cars.

Anyone hoping to save money by renting off-airport may be disappointed in the coming weeks of peak rental demand.

These prices are from our survey taken on 12/22/24, for a one-week rental from Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG), beginning on Monday, 12/23/24, for seven vehicle categories, Economy Car, Midsize Car, Convertible, Jeep, SUV, 7-passenger SUV, and Minivan. The rental companies covered in the survey are Ace, Alamo, Avis, Budget, Dollar, Enterprise, Fox, Hertz, National, NU, Payless, SiXT, and Thrifty. For more info on the companies we cover, see our blog post on customer satisfaction ratings for these Maui car rental companies. 

As we've noted in previous blog posts, the price for an off-airport rental is usually lower than an airport rental, due to two factors:

1. Higher mandatory taxes and fees that are added to the cost of an airport rental, and
2. A discretionary "convenience premium" that rental companies charge at the airport. For details, see for example Is It Cheaper to Rent a Car at the Airport in Maui? Updated for 2024.

Exceptions do occur from time to time and we do report them when they do. 

HOW DO WE GET OUR MAUI CAR RENTAL PRICE DATA?

Prices for Maui car rentals vary from week to week, and the company offering the lowest price also changes from week to week. Furthermore, one company may be offering the lowest price in one vehicle category, for example mid-size cars, while a different company has a better price on another category, for example mini-vans.

Beginning in July 2024, we've tracked the prices on seven vehicle categories - compact, mid-size, Jeep, convertible, SUV, 7-seat SUV, and minivan - from 10 different companies at Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG): Alamo, Avis, Budget, Dollar, Enterprise, Hertz, National, Payless, SiXT, and Thrifty. Each week, for every vehicle type, we noted which company offered the lowest price. Our weekly price-tracking for the lowest price economy car category goes back to July 2023 - more than one year. These are the data for the charts we post every week.

Previously we conducted a five-year price-tracking study for the lowest price economy car category beginning in February 2013 and continuing to February 2018. A sample of these results is in Figure 3, that shows the five-year average of the price over a one-year duration. For details of this massive price-tracking undertaking, and the most important findings on how and when to rent a car, see our blog post of July 14, 2024 titled "When is the best time to rent a car in Maui?" 

HOW TO CHECK RATES AND AVAILABILITY FOR MAUI CAR RENTAL

Either click through to to our Cars & Rates section, or check our booking site at rentals.mauicarrental.biz. This site gives you access to all vehicles from eight different companies - Ace, Alamo, Avis, Budget, Dollar, Enterprise, Payless, and Thrifty - at all their Maui locations, that include the Airport rentacar center, Kahului town locations nearby the airport, and resort locations in Kihei/Wailea, and Ka'anapali. With so many options to choose from, you are assured to find the rental car that matches your preferences and your budget for your Maui trip - and there is never a cancellation penalty if you have to change plans.

Price Data Sources: rentalcars.com, rentals.mauicarrental.biz