July 14, 2024 - Booking a Maui rental car at the last minute almost always - more than 90% of the time - saves you money over booking in advance. Booking in advance saves money only for two brief holiday periods - the two peak travel periods for the year - when rates rise at the last minute. For the other 48 weeks of the year, rates fall steadily closer to the date. This is based on our analysis of Maui car rental pricing data collected weekly over a period of five years. Continue reading for and actual case study and long term historical Maui car rental price data that demonstrate why last minute pricing is almost always cheaper when you're renting a car in Maui.

LAST MINUTE BOOKING CASE STUDY

For a one-week rental beginning on July 9, 2024, the lowest price for a Maui car rental was $231.22 on the day of rental. Booking 45 days in advance would have cost $338.18, or 46% more. Prices within a few dollars of the lowest price were available in the 10 days before the rental. This all applies for the lowest advertised price from eight major car rental companies including ACE, Alamo, Avis, Budget, Dollar, Enterprise, Payless, and Thrifty, on a rental from Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG).

This means that for this particular one-week rental beginning on July 9, a customer making a reservation 45 days in advance,, near the end of May, would have paid about $100 more than a customer who waited until the last minute or the days just before the beginning of the rental.

The chart in the illustration shows that, aside from a brief and small blip upward on the day before, the price for the rental went down steadily over the 45 days leading up to the rental.

YES BUT... WAS THIS JUST A FLUKE?

Actually no. This pattern of price decrease is consistent with the results of an exclusive detailed five-year study of Maui car rental prices. Our research shows that more than 90% of the time, over the course of a year, last-minute prices are lower than advance prices. Advance prices are often 50% or even 75% higher than last minute prices. The farther in advance you make a reservation, the more you pay. For the details, keep reading below. This does run counter to the widely held belief that booking advance saves you money. So if you're willing to risk the very small chance that unexpected events might disrupt car rental prices and bring about a sudden increase, then you will save money by waiting to the last minute to book your Maui car rental.

This table below shows how prices changed in the 45 days leading up to the rental date on 7/9/24:

Date Advance Cost

05/25/24 45 $338.18
06/02/24 37 $279.69
06/10/24 29 $265.34
06/18/24 21 $245.44
06/28/24 11 $233.26
07/07/24 2 $234.64
07/08/24 1 $244.42
07/09/24 - $231.22

WHY DO MAUI CAR RENTAL PRICES FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN?

Car rental companies follow a pricing strategy called "dynamic pricing" also called "yield maximization." To put it simply, prices for future dates go down if customer bookings for those dates are below target. In this situation, prices are lowered in order to stimulate demand and capture share from competitors. On the other hand, prices for future dates hold steady or can even go up if revenue projections based on actual bookings are coming in on target. In this situation, the priority is to make as much revenue as possible from every remaining car, by increasing the rental price. In either case, whether they are price increases or price drops, the price adjustments are done by computer algorithms that monitor bookings, make projections, and set prices automatically in real time. Prices can change dramatically, either up or down, in response to unexpected events or disruptions. But the truth be told, unexpected events like weather events or sudden economic downturns or natural disasters are more likely to cause a drop in prices, not an increase. Aside from the brief surge that followed the re-opening of travel to Maui after the Covid-19 closure, last-minute prices consistently come in at or below the prices booked in advance. We'll have more details about this in an upcoming blog post.

WHEN IS IT BEST TO BOOK IN ADVANCE?

This section describes exclusive original pricing research carried out at Frank's Friendly Cars over a period of five years, from 2013 to 2018. Our research carried out over the five year period between 2013 and 2018 shows that for most of the year, advance reservation prices are higher than last-minute prices.

Every week - for five years beginning in February 2013 - we monitored the lowest advertised price for a one-week Maui car rental made at the last minute, and one month in advance, and three months in advance. The data showed recurring seasonal patterns of pricing that repeated from year to year - this was in a a five-year period of relative stability, before the disruptions of Covid-19 and the Lahaina wildfires, and after the 2008 financial crisis. For this period, we consider that the average of the weekly price taken over five years was representative of the pricing trends that are to be expected based on seasonal travel patterns.

Our findings are illustrated in the chart that tracks the rental price variation week-to-week, and compares the cost of booking last minute versus the cost one month in advance and the cost three months in advance. Based on a five year average of Maui car rental prices, there are only two periods over the course of the year where the advance price is likely to be cheaper than the last-minute price. These two periods of cheaper advance prices are: (1) two weeks around Christmas, and (2) two weeks around mid-February. This means that for the other 48 weeks out of 52, or more than 90% of the time, the advance price is higher than the last minute-price. This is a recurring pattern that repeats every year. So if you are booking a reservation around Christmas or around mid-February, it is possible that you will get a better price by booking in advance. For all other periods of the year, it is more likely that you will get the best price at the last minute.

HOW TO CHECK RATES AND AVAILABILITY FOR MAUI CAR RENTAL

For used car rentals from our local Maui fleet, click through to our Cars & Rates section, or, for new cars, check our booking site at rentals.mauicarrental.biz. This site gives you access to all vehicles from eight different companies - Ace, Alamo, Avis, Budget, Dollar, Enterprise, Payless, and Thrifty - at all their Maui locations, that include the Airport rentacar center, Kahului town locations nearby the airport, and resort locations in Kihei/Wailea, and Ka'anapali. With so many options to choose from, you are assured to find the rental car that matches your preferences and your budget for your Maui trip - and there is never a cancellation penalty if you have to change plans.

CHEAPEST MAUI CAR RENTAL PRICES FOR THE WEEK OF JULY 15, 2024

These are the lowest advertised prices for a one-week rental beginning on Monday, July 15, from Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG). Rates have seen a moderate increase from last week.
Off-airport (with shuttle): $285.47 (up $61 from last week).
Airport Rentacar Center: $316.08 (also up $61).
Sources: rentalcars.com, rentals.mauicarrental.biz

Prices for the entire last year are shown in the accompanying chart.