Dec 1, 2024 - Maui car rental prices have been rising this fall since the month of September, but this week they gave up all their gains and returned to summer low season levels (see Figure 1).

Here is a summary of this week's lowest advertised prices for a one-week car rental beginning Monday December 2 from Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG), for a selection of vehicle categories, with the change from the previous week, and the company offering the best price.

Category Price Change Company
Economy $211 -61% Dollar
Midsize $276 -51% Payless
Jeep $469 -73% Budget
Convertbl $440 -44% Alamo
SUV $323 -46% Dollar
7 St SUV $436 -41% Avis
Minivan $442 -59% Payless

Prices on a range of vehicle types were about one half to on quarter of their levels last week! Economy cars were down 61%, midsize cars were down about half, the volatile Jeep category was down by a stunning 73%, convertibles and SUV's dropped by about 45%, and for minivans it was a 59% drop. These drops from last week's highs translate into hundreds of dollars per week in every category.

In previous blog posts, we described the price movement as a roller coaster ride , with sharp rises and drops alternating from week to week, but with the overall trend upward and leading to a high peak last week, just before the Thanksgiving holiday.

This week's price movement can be only described as a capitulation or collapse. Rental companies are stuck with over-capacity and using lower prices to lure any customer that they can get.

WHY ARE MAUI CAR RENTAL PRICES SO VOLATILE?

It's a commonplace that prices vary because of changes in supply and demand, but there are more detailed reasons that give a better picture of what's happening with Maui car rental prices and why.

1. Rental companies are adjusting to a "new normal" following last year's Lahaina wildfire disaster. In this environment it's difficult for rental car managers to make accurate forecasts of anticipated travel and rental car demand and this can lead to price fluctuations.
2. Travel patterns are changing due to new economic realities. High prices on everything including air travel and accommodations are putting a dent in everyone's wallet. So people take shorter trips or forego making trips altogether. This means demand for rental car is drastically lower for any period that is not a peak holiday travel period. November had two peak travel periods, the first for the Veteran's Day long weekend, and the second for Thanksgiving weekend. For both these periods, prices shot up sharply, then fell immediately afterward.
3. Over-reliance on dynamic pricing algorithms to set rental car prices. Computer based programs for dynamic pricing continually adjust current and future pricing, with the objective of maximizing their estimates of revenue, based on estimates of current and future demand i.e. booking rates, and other factors like price elasticity of demand (i.e. how much do booking rates change up or down when prices go down or up, respectively). The algorithms can make changes to pricing daily or even hourly. Historically, these programs have been based on mathematical optimization methods based in mathematical control and optimization theory, with AI-based neural network models and large language models entering into the mix in the last year or two. But poorly trained or poorly tuned algorithms can produce erratic results like the huge price swings in Maui car rental prices from week to week.

WHAT EFFECTS DO PRICE FLUCTUATIONS HAVE ON THE RENTAL CAR BUSINESS? 

Whatever the reasons may be, price fluctuations like these can only lead to undesirable outcomes. The rental car industry already has an image problem, with widespread negative perceptions by customers. Wild price fluctuations can only increase the levels of customer distrust and resentment. In recent years, car rental customers have flocked from conventional rentals with national brands to alternative car-sharing arrangements (like Turo) and are also giving more share of business to locally owned and operated companies. Some would compare this to jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire, but to disillusioned customers making the switch, anything seems preferable to the business models of large national chains.

HOW DO WE GET OUR MAUI CAR RENTAL PRICE DATA?

Prices for Maui car rentals vary from week to week, and the company offering the lowest price also changes from week to week. Furthermore, one company may be offering the lowest price in one vehicle category, for example mid-size cars, while a different company has a better price on another category, for example mini-vans.

Beginning in July 2024, we've tracked the prices on seven vehicle categories - compact, mid-size, Jeep, convertible, SUV, 7-seat SUV, and minivan - from 10 different companies at Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG): Alamo, Avis, Budget, Dollar, Enterprise, Hertz, National, Payless, SiXT, and Thrifty. Each week, for every vehicle type, we noted which company offered the lowest price. Our weekly price-tracking for the lowest price economy car category goes back to July 2023 - more than one year. These are the data for the charts we post every week.

Previously we conducted a five-year price-tracking study for the lowest price economy car category beginning in February 2013 to February 2018. A sample of these results is in Figure 2, that shows the five-year average of the price over a one-year duration. For details of this massive price-tracking undertaking, and the most important findings on how and when to rent a car, see our blog post of July 14, 2024 titled "When is the best time to rent a car in Maui?" 

HOW MUCH MORE DOES IT COST TO RENT FROM THE AIRPORT?

Normally, off-airport prices are lower than airport prices due to a number of factors that we have covered in a previous blog post, titled "Is It Cheaper to Rent a Car at the Airport in Maui? Updated for 2024.." This week, the airport price is higher than off-airport for nearly all vehicle categories, with the only exception being Jeeps, that are priced higher off-airport this week (See Figure 3).

These prices are from our survey taken on 12/1/24, for a one-week rental from Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG), beginning on Monday, 12/2/24, for seven vehicle categories, Economy Car, Midsize Car, Convertible, Jeep, SUV, 7-passenger SUV, and Minivan. The rental companies covered in the survey are Ace, Alamo, Avis, Budget, Dollar, Enterprise, Fox, Hertz, National, NU, Payless, SiXT, and Thrifty. For more info on the companies we cover, see our blog post on customer satisfaction ratings for these Maui car rental companies .

As we've noted in previous blog posts like this one titled " Is It Cheaper To Rent A Car At The Airport in Maui? the price for an off-airport rental is usually lower than an airport rental, due to two factors:

1. Higher mandatory taxes and fees that are added to the cost of an airport rental, and
2. A discretionary "convenience premium" that rental companies charge at the airport. For details, see for example Is It Cheaper to Rent a Car at the Airport in Maui? Updated for 2024. 

Exceptions do occur from time to time and we do report them when they do.

HOW HAVE PRICES CHANGED COMPARED TO LAST YEAR?

This week the cheapest price for a one week car rental from Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG) beginning on Monday 12/1/24 is $211/week, down $355 or 61% from last week. For a rental from nearby off-airport locations served by shuttle, the cheapest price is $177/week, down $307 or 63% from last week. These prices are close to the previous highest prices for the year, that we reached during the February 2024 peak travel season (see Figure 4).

The prices we report include all taxes and fees, but they do not include insurance or any other optional add-ons like roadside assistance or re-fueling.

Compared to one year ago, for the week of 12/4/23, today's price for an airport rental is $39/week higher than last year, and the price for an off-airport rental is only $11/week more than last year (see Figure 3).

Prices for November 2023 (last year) and November 2024 (this year) both show a double-peak pattern corresponding to the two November holidays, Veteran's Day and Thanksgiving (see the highlighted areas in Figure 3). The difference this year is in the size of the peaks, with this year's twin peaks much higher this year than last year.

The twin-peak pattern for November applies consistently for all vehicle types - see the highlighted area of Figure 4, with the peaks more pronounced for the volatile Jeep category.

This twin peak pattern for the month of November is not a fluke. We even see it in the historical data that we collected over a period of five years! This is shown in Figure 2.

We monitor Maui car rental price data as part of our weekly survey of car rental prices for a one-week rental. Every Sunday, we check prices for a one-week rental beginning the following day, Monday. The lowest advertised rate week by week for the entire last year is shown in the accompanying chart (Figure 3), for both airport and off-airport rentals.

Usually, more than 90% of the time, this last-minute price is the lowest available price for the rental, lower than a price booked in advance. See our research on When is The Best Time to Book a Car in Maui. 

HOW TO CHECK RATES AND AVAILABILITY FOR MAUI CAR RENTAL

Either click through to to our Cars & Rates section, or check our booking site at rentals.mauicarrental.biz. This site gives you access to all vehicles from eight different companies - Ace, Alamo, Avis, Budget, Dollar, Enterprise, Payless, and Thrifty - at all their Maui locations, that include the Airport rentacar center, Kahului town locations nearby the airport, and resort locations in Kihei/Wailea, and Ka'anapali. With so many options to choose from, you are assured to find the rental car that matches your preferences and your budget for your Maui trip - and there is never a cancellation penalty if you have to change plans.

Price Data Sources: rentalcars.com, rentals.mauicarrental.biz