July 7, 2024 - For the week of the July 4 Independence Day holiday, the price for a one-week car rental in Maui increased to $295.02 for an off-airport rental, and $468.91 for a rental from Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG). This is based on our weekly survey of the lowest advertised prices for Maui car rentals in the Online Travel Agent (OTA) systems. Compared to the prices of two weeks prior, this represents whopping increases of 63% for the off-airport rate, and 84% for the airport rate. 

THANKFULLY THE PRICE FIREWORKS WERE BRIEF

The Maui car rental price increases for the July 4 Independence Day holiday appear to have been short-lived, with the rates dropping off rapidly in the following week, to $224.63 off-airport, and $255.91 from airport, putting them closer to the average rates seen over the last year. The progression of Maui car rental prices over the entire past year starting from July 2023 up to this date can be seen in the first illustration that accompanies this blog post.

WHAT'S INCLUDED IN THESE RATES?

These rates include all mandatory taxes and fees, but they do not include any extras like supplemental liability insurance, collision and comprehensive coverages, roadside assistance, refueling, or other options.

SEASONAL PATTERNS FOR MAUI VISITOR ARRIVAL NUMBERS

The number of visitors arriving daily or weekly to Maui has a direct effect on the demand for rental cars. This in turn affects Maui rental car prices.

In normal years, without any disruptive events, Maui visitor arrivals vary seasonally on a predictable, repeatable pattern that can be seen in the second illustration accompanying this post. We have drawn out the key seasonal dates for Maui travel, based on a six year average of weekly visitor arrivals between July 2013 and July 2018. The numbers that form the basis for the statistics we used for this study were made available by the Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism (DBEDT).

The key seasonal dates that we identified, based on the six-year average of weekly Maui visitor arrivals, are labeled on the chart. They are the following.

1. Summer high season - Mid-June to mid-August
2. Fall high season - October.
3. Thanksgiving Holiday.
4. Christmas and New Year's.
5. Presidents' Birthday Holiday
6. Spring Break
7. Memorial Day

The correlation in visitor arrivals peaking on these dates is very strong from year to year for the six years charted. These seasonal dates are expected to hold in every year that is not affected by disruptive external events.

HOW ARE VISITOR ARRIVALS TO MAUI DIFFERENT IN THE LAST YEAR (2023-2024)?

In summer 2023, visitor arrivals to Maui were starting to recover from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic that disrupted travel to the Hawaiian islands. But just then Maui was hit with the disastrous Lahaina wildfires. The effect was a drastic decline in visitor arrivals that took effect immediately in August 2023. Since then, visitor arrivals have staged a slow recovery, but, 11 months later, arrivals are only about 80% of pre-pandemic levels.

This is illustrated on the chart, where visitor arrival numbers from July 2023 to July 2024 are compared with the six-year average of 2013-2018. Visitor arrivals for the this past year do follow the same seasonal pattern with the same seasonal dates as pre-pandemic years - however the number of visitors arriving to Maui is reduced significantly, at only 80% now compared to pre-pandemic years.

HOW HAVE LOWER VISITOR ARRIVALS AFFECTED MAUI CAR RENTAL PRICES?

In a previous blog post, titled Maui Car Rental Prices: One Year In Review, we discussed the trends in Maui car rent al prices from July 2023 to July 2024. In normal years, dates for strong peaks in Maui car rental prices are expected to coincide with the peak dates in Maui visitor arrivals. We will examine this in more detail in a forthcoming blog post. This pattern was disrupted in the last year. The most notable disruptions were for the Thanksgiving Holiday, the Christmas Holiday, the the Spring Break surge. Prices on these seasonal dates were much softer than expected. We know that Maui car rental companies did reduce their fleet levels after the Lahaina fires, however, even with reduced availability, the customer demand that normally boosts Maui car rental prices was just not there on key dates when it was expected.

WHERE ARE MAUI CAR RENTAL PRICES HEADED FOR THE REST OF 2024?

The next chart shows the trend of weekly visitor arrivals for 2023-24 versus 2018-2019. The arrivals for each week from July 2023 to July 2024 are divided by the arrivals for the corresponding week from July 2018 to July 2019. Here's a summary of the trends we see in the data:

1. Weekly visitor arrivals in July 2023 started roughly on a par with the earlier period (ratio ~1).
2. Arrivals dropped precipitously after the Lahaina wildfires in August.
3. Arrivals staged a progressive recovery going into mid-winter 2024.
4. Arrivals have flat-lined at about 80% of previous levels (ratio ~0.8) for spring and summer 2024. This means that relative to the corresponding weeks of 2019, visitor arrivals in spring and summer of 2024 have not shown any significant increase or decrease from their level at about 80% of spring and summer of 2019.

Airline seat forecasts for the next few months, also released by DBEDT, confirm an expected flat-lining in visitor arrivals. With travelers facing a number of political and economic uncertainties in the coming period, we expect visitor arrivals to stay below average well into 2025. So it's reasonable to expect weakness in Maui car rental prices, at least over the next few months, if not for the entirety of the coming year. This means potentially more affordable car rental prices in Maui for the coming year and going into winter 2025 - which is great for travelers arriving during this time.

HOW TO CHECK RATES AND AVAILABILITY FOR MAUI CAR RENTAL

Either click through to our Cars & Rates section , or check our booking site at rentals.mauicarrental.biz . This site gives you access to all vehicles from eight different companies - Ace, Alamo, Avis, Budget, Dollar, Enterprise, Payless, and Thrifty - at all their Maui locations, that include the Airport rentacar center, Kahului town locations nearby the airport, and resort locations in Kihei/Wailea, and Ka'anapali. With so many options to choose from, you are assured to find the rental car that matches your preferences and your budget for your Maui trip - and there is never a cancellation penalty if you have to change plans.

CHEAPEST MAUI CAR RENTAL PRICES FOR THE WEEK OF JULY 8, 2024

These are the lowest advertised prices for a one-week rental beginning on Monday, July 8, from Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG). Rates have dropped from last week's high.
Off-airport (with shuttle): $24.634 (down from last week).
Airport Rentacar Center: $255.91 (down $213).
Sources: rentalcars.com, rentals.mauicarrental.biz