February 11, 2024 - Over the last two weeks, we've seen a huge increase in the car rental rates in Maui. Rates this week are more than twice (nearly triple!) what they were two weeks ago. As of today, the lowest advertised rate is just above $600/week for a rental car from Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG).
Maui rental car rates are never exactly cheap, they can change seasonally throughout the year, and higher rates are not unusual in Maui for this time of year. Historically, the period around Valentine's Day (Feb 14) to Presidents Day (Third Monday in February, this year falling on Feb 19) is always one of the busiest for travel to Maui. Rental car rates always rise during this period. What's unusual this year is these February rates are even higher than the rates for the X-mas/New Year peak, that are usually the highest for the year.
We do know that major car rental companies did downsize their Maui fleets after the Lahaina wildfires, because of the expectation of lower visitor numbers for 2024. The number of available rental cars on the island has been significantly reduced. Even so, the rates for X-mas and New Year holidays were unusually soft by historical standards. But with fewer cars available to rent, it does not take much of an unexpected rise in visitor numbers to tip the balance of supply and demand into a shortage condition - which is reflected in this week's rates.
We will have to wait and see whether this is a temporary blip, or a more sustained trend like we experienced when travel resumed in 2021, after being interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. In Spring and Summer of 2021, a sustained surge in travelers outstripped the supply of available rental cars. As a consequence, rental rates stayed unusually high for several months.
These are this week's lowest advertised rates, for a one-week rental, starting Monday, February 12, from Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG):
Off-airport (with shuttle) $446.70
Airport Rentacar Center $601.18
Source: rentalcars.com